CNGR

02579

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

61%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

10.9%

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

Public offer lots

52,113 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.109 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 9.1% Absolute diff. 0.009 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	16.516 lots	10.962 lots	Relative deviation 50.7% Absolute diff. 5.554 lots	3.4m	0.1m
B head	1,000	Pool B	26.374 lots	39.000 lots	Relative deviation 32.4% Absolute diff. 12.626 lots	6.8m	0.2m
Top	26,056	Pool B	681.170 lots	918.000 lots	Relative deviation 25.8% Absolute diff. 236.830 lots	177.2m	4.6m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.