CNGR

02579

Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.

Model basis: Strong basis

How to read this page

Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

11.1%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Official one-lot hit rate?

10.0%

A-tail avg. allotted?

16.806 lots

B-head avg. allotted?

26.313 lots

Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.

Public offer lots

52,113 lots

More likely allotment patterns

“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.

Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.

Average allotment by tier

Key tiers are 1 lot, A-tail, B-head and top hammer. The core column is average allotted lots; the official column appears after allotment is published.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount	Expected allotment value
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.111 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 11.1% Absolute diff. 0.011 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	16.806 lots	10.962 lots	Relative deviation 53.3% Absolute diff. 5.844 lots	3.4m	0.1m
B head	1,000	Pool B	26.313 lots	39.000 lots	Relative deviation 32.5% Absolute diff. 12.687 lots	6.8m	0.2m
Top hammer	26,056	Pool B	685.604 lots	918.000 lots	Relative deviation 25.3% Absolute diff. 232.396 lots	177.2m	4.7m

Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.