SHOUGANG LANZA

02553

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

54%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.7%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.0%

Public offer lots

20,000 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.037 lots	0.020 lots	Relative deviation 84.8% Absolute diff. 0.017 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,500	Pool A	0.406 lots	1.200 lots	Relative deviation 66.2% Absolute diff. 0.794 lots	4.4m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	0.800 lots	1.526 lots	Relative deviation 47.6% Absolute diff. 0.726 lots	5.8m	0m
Top	5,040	Pool B	1.470 lots	-	-	14.7m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.