ZHIHUI MINING

02546

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

12,196 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.016 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 55.0% Absolute diff. 0.006 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.169 lots	0.268 lots	Relative deviation 36.9% Absolute diff. 0.099 lots	4.5m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	0.211 lots	0.270 lots	Relative deviation 21.7% Absolute diff. 0.059 lots	6.8m	0m
Top	6,098	Pool B	0.577 lots	0.585 lots	Relative deviation 1.3% Absolute diff. 0.008 lots	27.5m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.