DIAGENS-B

02526

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

3.0%

Public offer lots

15,999 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.042 lots	0.030 lots	Relative deviation 39.0% Absolute diff. 0.012 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.385 lots	0.833 lots	Relative deviation 53.8% Absolute diff. 0.448 lots	5m	0m
B head	1,200	Pool B	0.891 lots	0.904 lots	Relative deviation 1.5% Absolute diff. 0.014 lots	5.9m	0m
Top	7,999	Pool B	2.208 lots	3.161 lots	Relative deviation 30.2% Absolute diff. 0.953 lots	39.6m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.