HESAI-W

02525

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

59%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

8.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

30.0%

Public offer lots

97,750 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.081 lots	0.300 lots	Relative deviation 73.1% Absolute diff. 0.219 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	2.351 lots	1.986 lots	Relative deviation 18.4% Absolute diff. 0.365 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	6.114 lots	7.501 lots	Relative deviation 18.5% Absolute diff. 1.386 lots	6.4m	0m
Top	42,500	Pool B	149.083 lots	210.780 lots	Relative deviation 29.3% Absolute diff. 61.697 lots	180.9m	0.6m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.