KNOWLEDGE ATLAS

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Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

7.0%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

74,836 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.070 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 40.6% Absolute diff. 0.020 lots	0m	0m
A tail	400	Pool A	0.631 lots	1.320 lots	Relative deviation 52.2% Absolute diff. 0.690 lots	4.6m	0m
B head	500	Pool B	1.418 lots	1.500 lots	Relative deviation 5.5% Absolute diff. 0.082 lots	5.8m	0m
Top	9,355	Pool B	5.812 lots	13.000 lots	Relative deviation 55.3% Absolute diff. 7.189 lots	108.7m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.