MABWELL-B

02493

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Gradual

Joint probability

45%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

0.4%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

23,566 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.004 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 61.0% Absolute diff. 0.006 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	1.195 lots	1.320 lots	Relative deviation 9.5% Absolute diff. 0.125 lots	2.8m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	1.959 lots	2.000 lots	Relative deviation 2.1% Absolute diff. 0.041 lots	5.5m	0m
Top	11,783	Pool B	9.918 lots	11.000 lots	Relative deviation 9.8% Absolute diff. 1.082 lots	65.1m	0.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.