VGT

02476

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.7%

Public offer lots

95,850 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.010 lots	0.007 lots	Relative deviation 29.6% Absolute diff. 0.003 lots	0m	0m
A tail	200	Pool A	0.502 lots	1.427 lots	Relative deviation 64.8% Absolute diff. 0.925 lots	4.2m	0m
B head	300	Pool B	0.408 lots	0.439 lots	Relative deviation 7.2% Absolute diff. 0.031 lots	6.3m	0m
Top	37,507	Pool B	50.338 lots	54.850 lots	Relative deviation 8.2% Absolute diff. 4.512 lots	787.2m	1.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.