LUXSHARE ICT

02475

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

69%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

95.4%

Official one-lot hit rate?

100.0%

Public offer lots

383,472 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.954 lots	1.000 lots	Relative deviation 4.6% Absolute diff. 0.046 lots	0m	0m
A tail	700	Pool A	166.286 lots	97.514 lots	Relative deviation 70.5% Absolute diff. 68.772 lots	4.4m	1.1m
B head	800	Pool B	155.053 lots	200.000 lots	Relative deviation 22.5% Absolute diff. 44.947 lots	5.1m	1m
Top	191,736	Pool B	35,160.912 lots	-	-	1,213.3m	222.5m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.