XIAO NOODLES

02408

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

2 active

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

6.4%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.0%

Public offer lots

19,473 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.064 lots	0.020 lots	Relative deviation 218.1% Absolute diff. 0.044 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,400	Pool A	1.288 lots	2.584 lots	Relative deviation 50.1% Absolute diff. 1.296 lots	4.9m	0m
B head	1,600	Pool B	2.585 lots	4.000 lots	Relative deviation 35.4% Absolute diff. 1.415 lots	5.6m	0m
Top	9,736	Pool B	9.356 lots	13.000 lots	Relative deviation 28.0% Absolute diff. 3.644 lots	34.3m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.