MICOT PHARMA-B

02335

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.4%

Official one-lot hit rate?

3.0%

Public offer lots

29,028 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.044 lots	0.030 lots	Relative deviation 46.6% Absolute diff. 0.014 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.391 lots	0.463 lots	Relative deviation 15.5% Absolute diff. 0.072 lots	3.6m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	1.242 lots	1.500 lots	Relative deviation 17.2% Absolute diff. 0.258 lots	5.5m	0m
Top	14,514	Pool B	3.961 lots	3.523 lots	Relative deviation 12.4% Absolute diff. 0.438 lots	52.8m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.