LUNG FUNG GROUP

02290

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

6.0%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

25,000 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.060 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 20.6% Absolute diff. 0.010 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,800	Pool A	1.050 lots	2.717 lots	Relative deviation 61.3% Absolute diff. 1.667 lots	4.7m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	2.952 lots	2.801 lots	Relative deviation 5.4% Absolute diff. 0.151 lots	5.2m	0m
Top	12,500	Pool B	9.893 lots	8.000 lots	Relative deviation 23.7% Absolute diff. 1.893 lots	32.4m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.