NASN TECH

02261

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

5.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

8.0%

Public offer lots

57,595 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.051 lots	0.080 lots	Relative deviation 35.8% Absolute diff. 0.029 lots	0m	0m
A tail	4,000	Pool A	0.624 lots	0.732 lots	Relative deviation 14.7% Absolute diff. 0.108 lots	4.2m	0m
B head	5,000	Pool B	1.554 lots	2.000 lots	Relative deviation 22.3% Absolute diff. 0.446 lots	5.2m	0m
Top	28,797	Pool B	4.935 lots	4.099 lots	Relative deviation 20.4% Absolute diff. 0.836 lots	30m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.