NEXCHIP

02249

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

62%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

11.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

8.0%

Public offer lots

216,167 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.111 lots	0.080 lots	Relative deviation 38.9% Absolute diff. 0.031 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	1.208 lots	3.000 lots	Relative deviation 59.7% Absolute diff. 1.792 lots	3.2m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	5.535 lots	5.000 lots	Relative deviation 10.7% Absolute diff. 0.535 lots	6.5m	0m
Top	108,083	Pool B	86.766 lots	191.000 lots	Relative deviation 54.6% Absolute diff. 104.234 lots	349.1m	0.3m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.