MEDCAPTAIN

02041

Numbers default to the most likely allotment pattern. Clicking another pattern only compares the table; extra-watch notes are historical comparisons and do not change the main reference.

Data updated · Sep 22, 2026, 14:40 HKT

Model basis: Strong basis

How to read this page

Start with one-lot, A-tail and B-head. The table below defaults to the most likely pattern.
The three cards are more likely allotment patterns, not a ranking contest. Clicking another card only compares how the numbers change; it does not replace the main reference.
An extra-watch note names one pattern to compare first. Click it to see how the numbers change. It is not a new main reference and not trading advice.

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.9%

Average lots allotted when applying for 1 lot. Closer to 100% means a one-lot application is more likely to get stock.

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Predicted A-tail allotted?

1.702 lots

Official A-tail allotted

3.680 lots

Predicted B-head allotted?

6.333 lots

Official B-head allotted

9.201 lots

Largest Pool A tier, usually the full small-application size. Smallest Pool B tier, just after entering the large-application pool.

Public offer lots

38,910 lots

More likely allotment patterns

“Most likely” is the default method for the current numbers. The other cards are next-likely patterns for comparison. Clicking them does not replace the main reference.

Click to compare the table below. The table changes; the main reference does not.

Average allotment by tier

Key tiers are 1 lot, A-tail, B-head and top hammer. The core column is average allotted lots; the official column appears after allotment is published.

Table scenario

Larger Pool A applications get less extra allotment；Pool B allotment declines gradually with size

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount	Expected allotment value
1 lot	1	Pool A	4.9%	5.0%	Relative deviation 1.5% Absolute diff. 0.1%	0m	0m
A tail	3,000	Pool A	1.702 lots	3.680 lots	Relative deviation 53.8% Absolute diff. 1.978 lots	4.6m	0m
B head	4,000	Pool B	6.333 lots	9.201 lots	Relative deviation 31.2% Absolute diff. 2.868 lots	6.2m	0m
Top hammer	19,455	Pool B	18.018 lots	31.461 lots	Relative deviation 42.7% Absolute diff. 13.443 lots	30m	0m

Win-rate forecasts are informational research output. Likelihood is the published scenario view. Extra-watch notes use forward-only historical samples, do not change the main-reference numbers, are not official allotment certainty, and are not subscription advice.