DELTON

01989

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

46,000 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.036 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 27.6% Absolute diff. 0.014 lots	0m	0m
A tail	600	Pool A	0.298 lots	0.456 lots	Relative deviation 34.7% Absolute diff. 0.158 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	700	Pool B	0.587 lots	0.560 lots	Relative deviation 4.9% Absolute diff. 0.027 lots	5m	0m
Top	23,000	Pool B	3.497 lots	7.978 lots	Relative deviation 56.2% Absolute diff. 4.481 lots	165.3m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.