XIZHI TECH-P

01879

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.0%

Official one-lot hit rate?

6.0%

Public offer lots

183,936 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.040 lots	0.060 lots	Relative deviation 33.0% Absolute diff. 0.020 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.559 lots	0.919 lots	Relative deviation 39.1% Absolute diff. 0.360 lots	2.7m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	1.394 lots	1.600 lots	Relative deviation 12.9% Absolute diff. 0.206 lots	5.5m	0m
Top	22,992	Pool B	4.122 lots	4.415 lots	Relative deviation 6.6% Absolute diff. 0.293 lots	63.2m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.