LONGBIO-B

01779

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

2.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.0%

Public offer lots

28,386 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.023 lots	0.020 lots	Relative deviation 12.9% Absolute diff. 0.003 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.153 lots	0.179 lots	Relative deviation 14.6% Absolute diff. 0.026 lots	4.8m	0m
B head	1,200	Pool B	0.194 lots	0.240 lots	Relative deviation 19.4% Absolute diff. 0.047 lots	5.8m	0m
Top	14,193	Pool B	0.991 lots	1.214 lots	Relative deviation 18.4% Absolute diff. 0.223 lots	68.2m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.