DKE

01770

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

3.0%

Public offer lots

10,238 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.033 lots	0.030 lots	Relative deviation 10.0% Absolute diff. 0.003 lots	0m	0m
A tail	800	Pool A	0.491 lots	0.203 lots	Relative deviation 141.3% Absolute diff. 0.287 lots	3.1m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	1.339 lots	0.880 lots	Relative deviation 52.1% Absolute diff. 0.459 lots	3.9m	0m
Top	5,119	Pool B	2.939 lots	2.000 lots	Relative deviation 47.0% Absolute diff. 0.939 lots	20.1m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.