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Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

57%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

3.0%

Public offer lots

15,512 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.018 lots	0.030 lots	Relative deviation 39.0% Absolute diff. 0.012 lots	0m	0m
A tail	200	Pool A	0.077 lots	0.040 lots	Relative deviation 91.1% Absolute diff. 0.037 lots	4.7m	0m
B head	300	Pool B	0.139 lots	0.261 lots	Relative deviation 46.7% Absolute diff. 0.122 lots	7.1m	0m
Top	7,051	Pool B	1.337 lots	0.354 lots	Relative deviation 277.8% Absolute diff. 0.983 lots	166.8m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.