LINGYI ITECH

01688

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

61%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

6.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.2%

Public offer lots

123,001 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.068 lots	0.012 lots	Relative deviation 456.3% Absolute diff. 0.056 lots	0m	0m
A tail	700	Pool A	10.002 lots	8.588 lots	Relative deviation 16.5% Absolute diff. 1.414 lots	4.7m	0.1m
B head	800	Pool B	8.268 lots	7.219 lots	Relative deviation 14.5% Absolute diff. 1.050 lots	5.4m	0.1m
Top	61,501	Pool B	571.484 lots	555.000 lots	Relative deviation 3.0% Absolute diff. 16.484 lots	413.2m	3.8m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.