HX COLDCHAIN

01641

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Very steep

Joint probability

53%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.9%

Official one-lot hit rate?

1.0%

Public offer lots

4,653 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.019 lots	0.010 lots	Relative deviation 93.9% Absolute diff. 0.009 lots	0m	0m
A tail	800	Pool A	0.188 lots	0.211 lots	Relative deviation 10.8% Absolute diff. 0.023 lots	4.9m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	0.329 lots	0.400 lots	Relative deviation 17.8% Absolute diff. 0.071 lots	6.1m	0m
Top	2,326	Pool B	0.392 lots	0.522 lots	Relative deviation 25.0% Absolute diff. 0.131 lots	14.3m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.