UISEE TECH

01511

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

5.0%

Public offer lots

57,848 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.046 lots	0.050 lots	Relative deviation 7.8% Absolute diff. 0.004 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,600	Pool A	0.629 lots	0.335 lots	Relative deviation 87.7% Absolute diff. 0.294 lots	4.8m	0m
B head	1,800	Pool B	0.883 lots	1.260 lots	Relative deviation 29.9% Absolute diff. 0.377 lots	5.4m	0m
Top	7,231	Pool B	1.666 lots	1.933 lots	Relative deviation 13.8% Absolute diff. 0.267 lots	21.8m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.