LDROBOT

01236

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

1.7%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.8%

Public offer lots

16,666 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.017 lots	0.008 lots	Relative deviation 90.9% Absolute diff. 0.009 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	0.080 lots	0.107 lots	Relative deviation 25.0% Absolute diff. 0.027 lots	2.6m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	0.118 lots	0.100 lots	Relative deviation 18.2% Absolute diff. 0.018 lots	5.3m	0m
Top	8,333	Pool B	0.540 lots	0.707 lots	Relative deviation 23.6% Absolute diff. 0.167 lots	43.9m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.