CREALIGHTS

01191

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

4.2%

Official one-lot hit rate?

4.0%

Public offer lots

26,863 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.042 lots	0.040 lots	Relative deviation 5.5% Absolute diff. 0.002 lots	0m	0m
A tail	800	Pool A	0.410 lots	0.295 lots	Relative deviation 38.9% Absolute diff. 0.115 lots	4.6m	0m
B head	900	Pool B	0.758 lots	0.689 lots	Relative deviation 10.0% Absolute diff. 0.069 lots	5.1m	0m
Top	13,431	Pool B	4.482 lots	3.704 lots	Relative deviation 21.0% Absolute diff. 0.779 lots	76.6m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.