DAJIN

01081

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

61%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.8%

Official one-lot hit rate?

3.0%

Public offer lots

100,010 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.038 lots	0.030 lots	Relative deviation 25.3% Absolute diff. 0.008 lots	0m	0m
A tail	700	Pool A	6.083 lots	7.211 lots	Relative deviation 15.6% Absolute diff. 1.128 lots	4.6m	0m
B head	800	Pool B	4.675 lots	8.000 lots	Relative deviation 41.6% Absolute diff. 3.325 lots	5.3m	0m
Top	43,483	Pool B	247.777 lots	50.000 lots	Relative deviation 395.6% Absolute diff. 197.777 lots	288.7m	1.6m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.