SDMC

00901

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

55%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

3.1%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.0%

Public offer lots

19,208 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.031 lots	0.020 lots	Relative deviation 54.9% Absolute diff. 0.011 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.319 lots	0.274 lots	Relative deviation 16.4% Absolute diff. 0.045 lots	3.3m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	0.790 lots	1.000 lots	Relative deviation 21.0% Absolute diff. 0.210 lots	6.6m	0m
Top	9,604	Pool B	2.226 lots	2.409 lots	Relative deviation 7.6% Absolute diff. 0.183 lots	31.5m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.