WERIDE-W

00800

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

48%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

45.0%

Official one-lot hit rate?

6.6%

Public offer lots

176,500 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.450 lots	0.066 lots	Relative deviation 577.2% Absolute diff. 0.383 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	10.285 lots	66.309 lots	Relative deviation 84.5% Absolute diff. 56.024 lots	2.7m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	110.747 lots	92.436 lots	Relative deviation 19.8% Absolute diff. 18.311 lots	5.4m	0.3m
Top	22,062	Pool B	358.926 lots	1,019.625 lots	Relative deviation 64.8% Absolute diff. 660.699 lots	59.8m	1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.