JOYSON ELEC

00699

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

59%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

7.9%

Official one-lot hit rate?

16.0%

Public offer lots

31,020 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.079 lots	0.160 lots	Relative deviation 50.6% Absolute diff. 0.081 lots	0m	0m
A tail	400	Pool A	1.117 lots	0.191 lots	Relative deviation 485.2% Absolute diff. 0.926 lots	4.4m	0m
B head	600	Pool B	3.367 lots	8.316 lots	Relative deviation 59.5% Absolute diff. 4.949 lots	6.6m	0m
Top	15,510	Pool B	34.144 lots	8.625 lots	Relative deviation 295.9% Absolute diff. 25.519 lots	170.6m	0.4m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.