ANKER

00668

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

59%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

24.9%

Official one-lot hit rate?

30.0%

Public offer lots

46,632 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.249 lots	0.300 lots	Relative deviation 17.1% Absolute diff. 0.051 lots	0m	0m
A tail	500	Pool A	4.776 lots	6.000 lots	Relative deviation 20.4% Absolute diff. 1.224 lots	5m	0m
B head	1,000	Pool B	22.790 lots	48.976 lots	Relative deviation 53.5% Absolute diff. 26.186 lots	9.9m	0.2m
Top	23,316	Pool B	514.735 lots	900.000 lots	Relative deviation 42.8% Absolute diff. 385.265 lots	231.6m	5.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.