TONGSHIFU

00664

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

60%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

11.7%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.8%

Public offer lots

7,407 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.117 lots	0.028 lots	Relative deviation 320.3% Absolute diff. 0.089 lots	0m	0m
A tail	800	Pool A	2.890 lots	22.406 lots	Relative deviation 87.1% Absolute diff. 19.515 lots	4.8m	0m
B head	900	Pool B	8.974 lots	25.167 lots	Relative deviation 64.3% Absolute diff. 16.192 lots	5.4m	0.1m
Top	3,703	Pool B	36.220 lots	102.714 lots	Relative deviation 64.7% Absolute diff. 66.494 lots	22.2m	0.2m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.