FIBOCOM

00638

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Flat

Joint probability

58%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

6.3%

Official one-lot hit rate?

0.3%

Public offer lots

67,540 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.063 lots	0.003 lots	Relative deviation 599.5% Absolute diff. 0.060 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	0.960 lots	3.114 lots	Relative deviation 69.2% Absolute diff. 2.154 lots	4.3m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	1.593 lots	1.921 lots	Relative deviation 17.1% Absolute diff. 0.328 lots	6.5m	0m
Top	33,770	Pool B	35.751 lots	43.246 lots	Relative deviation 17.3% Absolute diff. 7.495 lots	145.2m	0.2m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.