AXERA

00600

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

62%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

13.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

18.0%

Public offer lots

104,915 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.136 lots	0.180 lots	Relative deviation 24.5% Absolute diff. 0.044 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	3.342 lots	5.000 lots	Relative deviation 33.2% Absolute diff. 1.658 lots	2.8m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	17.058 lots	23.000 lots	Relative deviation 25.8% Absolute diff. 5.942 lots	5.6m	0m
Top	52,458	Pool B	180.479 lots	208.000 lots	Relative deviation 13.2% Absolute diff. 27.521 lots	147.9m	0.5m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.