RIGOL

00537

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

64%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

12.9%

Official one-lot hit rate?

8.0%

Public offer lots

24,802 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.129 lots	0.080 lots	Relative deviation 61.5% Absolute diff. 0.049 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	2.489 lots	0.661 lots	Relative deviation 276.6% Absolute diff. 1.828 lots	4.6m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	13.574 lots	7.000 lots	Relative deviation 93.9% Absolute diff. 6.574 lots	9.2m	0.1m
Top	12,401	Pool B	45.342 lots	15.232 lots	Relative deviation 197.7% Absolute diff. 30.110 lots	57m	0.2m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.