OMNIVISION

00501

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Proportional + Flat

Joint probability

62%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

72.0%

Official one-lot hit rate?

100.0%

Public offer lots

45,800 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.720 lots	1.000 lots	Relative deviation 28.0% Absolute diff. 0.280 lots	0m	0m
A tail	400	Pool A	42.253 lots	10.000 lots	Relative deviation 322.5% Absolute diff. 32.253 lots	4.2m	0.4m
B head	500	Pool B	46.927 lots	43.814 lots	Relative deviation 7.1% Absolute diff. 3.113 lots	5.2m	0.5m
Top	22,900	Pool B	2,090.085 lots	1,952.000 lots	Relative deviation 7.1% Absolute diff. 138.084 lots	240m	21.9m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.