WUXI LEAD

00470

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Gradual

Joint probability

61%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

22.5%

Official one-lot hit rate?

18.0%

Public offer lots

107,658 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.225 lots	0.180 lots	Relative deviation 25.0% Absolute diff. 0.045 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,000	Pool A	4.756 lots	10.000 lots	Relative deviation 52.4% Absolute diff. 5.244 lots	4.6m	0m
B head	1,500	Pool B	19.683 lots	27.080 lots	Relative deviation 27.3% Absolute diff. 7.397 lots	6.9m	0.1m
Top	46,808	Pool B	236.090 lots	219.000 lots	Relative deviation 7.8% Absolute diff. 17.090 lots	214.4m	1.1m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.