MINIMAX-W

00100

Joint-scenario probability is the final recommendation. Switch among the Top 3 or a warned scenario to inspect its effect on average allotted lots by tier.

Model basis: Strong basis

Primary

Diminishing + Steep

Joint probability

56%

Warning status

No active warning

Predicted one-lot hit rate?

6.6%

Official one-lot hit rate?

2.8%

Public offer lots

291,980 lots

Joint-scenario Top 3

Only joint probabilities that account for Pool A/B dependence are shown. Top 2/3 are alternatives; single-pool probabilities remain internal model inputs and are not published.

Subscription tiers

Prospectus subscription tiers are shown; the core field is average allotted lots, and key tiers are highlighted.

Type	Lots	Pool	Predicted avg. allotted?	Official avg. allotted	Deviation	Application amount
1 lot	1	Pool A	0.066 lots	0.028 lots	Relative deviation 134.7% Absolute diff. 0.038 lots	0m	0m
A tail	1,500	Pool A	1.363 lots	4.003 lots	Relative deviation 65.9% Absolute diff. 2.640 lots	5m	0m
B head	2,000	Pool B	3.766 lots	5.000 lots	Relative deviation 24.7% Absolute diff. 1.234 lots	6.6m	0m
Top	31,737	Pool B	12.847 lots	16.568 lots	Relative deviation 22.5% Absolute diff. 3.721 lots	104.7m	0m

Allotment forecasts are informational research output. Joint-scenario probability is the only published scenario-probability view; Pool A/B probabilities remain internal model inputs. Warnings use forward-only historical data and do not alter the official probabilities or default choice.